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No base rate change coming

2 years ago

Despite the drop in inflation during June, the MPC believed that the change was not substantial enough over the month for the members to change their views on how they act.
Spencer Dale and Martin Weale voted against the proposition to hold base rate in favour of increasing the base rate by 25 basis points.
The MPC also voted to hold the stock of asset purchases at eight members to one. Adam Posen was the sole member voting against the proposition preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase program by £50bn to a total of £250bn.
The MPC remains in a difficult position as CPI inflation in June was 4.2% - still well above the Bank’s 2% target
The minutes said: “The risks to inflation in the medium term remained substantial in both directions. The committee set monetary policy to balance those risks around the 2% inflation target.
“If it were to become clear that one of those risks had crystallised - and the medium-term outlook for inflation had deviated materially from the target in either one direction or the other - the committee would respond by changing the stance of monetary policy.
“Most members judged that it was appropriate to maintain the current stance of monetary policy at this meeting. It was likely that the current weakness in activity would persist for longer than previously thought, although the reduction over the month in the exchange rate and in market interest rates would provide some countervailing stimulus to the economy.
“That weakness, together with the continued subdued behaviour of earnings, reinforced the case that inflation was likely to fall back once the temporary impact of the factors pushing up on it had waned.
“But there also remained upside risks associated with the sustained period of above-target inflation. There was a range of views on the balance of these downside and upside risks. Overall, however, recent developments had reduced the likelihood that a tightening in policy would be warranted in the near term.”

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